Revolution in Iran

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Joost
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Revolution in Iran

#1 Post by Joost » 22 Jun 2009 13:27

So, what about the highly interesting stuff that's going on there right at the moment: wide-scale protests reaching the scale of a true revolution, against the election fraud there, with the probable end result of an overthrow of the Islamist government?

Personally I never really saw much possibility in an overthrow of the Iranian government by intervention from the outside – the Iranians themselves are way too vocal to simply allow such a thing – but what's happening there right now seems to be much more of a fitting end to the ridiculous Islamist regime that Iran currently has.

I'm really hoping the whole system there will simply implode and replaced by something more Western and less fundamentalistically Islamic. And, given what's going on there right now, I think there's a good chance that this will happen, and the regime of the Ayatollah will not see the end of 2009.

If everything goes in the best way possible, I can even imagine that Iran will morph into a beacon of democracy in a region that is dominated by religious fundamentalism. Somehow, the Iranians themselves always seemed much more modern and western to me, than the regime that they are subjected to.

It's also interesting to see the role of modern technology in this revolution – how a tragic incident, that of Neda Soltani, ended up serving as a symbol of protest and revolution through modern technology (Twitter et al). In this sense, this may very well become the first truly modern revolution, with decentralized modern communication technology ending up more powerful than the traditional media. Either way, the revolutionaries now have their martyr, and also have their cause, and widespread support all around the world, and it would be a pity if these events did not lead to a true transformation/change in Iran.

Let's just hope none of this is in vain. Not this death, not any of the other deaths, and neither the desire for true improvement and change.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast ... n.twitter/
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#2 Post by Belgarion » 22 Jun 2009 14:08

It would be nice to see Iranian people revolt at last, but I don't really think that's the situation. Surely things are serious, but not in a real revolution kind. And today Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution stated that protesters should immediately cease the protests or they will be heavily punished (=slaughtered).
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#3 Post by Joost » 22 Jun 2009 14:13

Belgarion wrote:And today Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution stated that protesters should immediately cease the protests or they will be heavily punished (=slaughtered).
And you think that will actually stop them? I think such things would only serve as a trigger to make the reactions even more severe.
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#4 Post by Belgarion » 22 Jun 2009 14:16

I hope it won't stop them.
In this world there are two tragedies, one is not getting what one wants and the other is getting it. Oscar Wilde

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#5 Post by Lord Borbak » 22 Jun 2009 17:37

Joost wrote:So, what about the highly interesting stuff that's going on there right at the moment: wide-scale protests reaching the scale of a true revolution, against the election fraud there, with the probable end result of an overthrow of the Islamist government?

Personally I never really saw much possibility in an overthrow of the Iranian government by intervention from the outside – the Iranians themselves are way too vocal to simply allow such a thing – but what's happening there right now seems to be much more of a fitting end to the ridiculous Islamist regime that Iran currently has.

I'm really hoping the whole system there will simply implode and replaced by something more Western and less fundamentalistically Islamic. And, given what's going on there right now, I think there's a good chance that this will happen, and the regime of the Ayatollah will not see the end of 2009.

If everything goes in the best way possible, I can even imagine that Iran will morph into a beacon of democracy in a region that is dominated by religious fundamentalism. Somehow, the Iranians themselves always seemed much more modern and western to me, than the regime that they are subjected to.

It's also interesting to see the role of modern technology in this revolution – how a tragic incident, that of Neda Soltani, ended up serving as a symbol of protest and revolution through modern technology (Twitter et al). In this sense, this may very well become the first truly modern revolution, with decentralized modern communication technology ending up more powerful than the traditional media. Either way, the revolutionaries now have their martyr, and also have their cause, and widespread support all around the world, and it would be a pity if these events did not lead to a true transformation/change in Iran.

Let's just hope none of this is in vain. Not this death, not any of the other deaths, and neither the desire for true improvement and change.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast ... n.twitter/
You know what? I fully agree with you. Except for the "less fundamentalistically Islamic.". I'd replace "less" by "none at all", but that's just me :P And it actually goes for all religion/faith of any kind, any where in the world.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#6 Post by Wicked Child » 23 Jun 2009 15:33

I must disagree with this.
Joost wrote:So, what about the highly interesting stuff that's going on there right at the moment: wide-scale protests reaching the scale of a true revolution


I am a revolutionary myself in the sense that I support revolution ways to put the people on command, and for what I've read about many revolutions around the world, what is happening on Iran doesn't have a single sign of the structure of a revolution. It's rather a violent retaliation of the opposition in face of the democratic defeat they suffered. It has no popular support, neither are the rebels independent from legal parties that CAN run an election, nor is the "enemy", the ruler of the country.
Joost wrote:against the election fraud there, with the probable end result of an overthrow of the Islamist government?
Now, I insist to post this article: http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts06162009.html

I'm not making the article author's words my own here, but he surely has a point. There is an effort of the western world and media to bring Ahmadinejad down, because the USA candidate for Iran lose the election. That's the fact for now. Any doubts should consider the opinion researches made before the elections, such as the one that the article mentions. It is, at least, irresponsible to say it was a fraud like if it was something already proved - which was not.
Joost wrote:but what's happening there right now seems to be much more of a fitting end to the ridiculous Islamist regime that Iran currently has.
I'm sorry Joost, but what fitting end? I don't like the Islamist government too, although I don't know too much about Iran, but replace it with what..? US/UK interests before Iranians? This - in no way - could help oppression.
Joost wrote:I'm really hoping the whole system there will simply implode and replaced by something more Western and less fundamentalistically Islamic. And, given what's going on there right now, I think there's a good chance that this will happen, and the regime of the Ayatollah will not see the end of 2009.
Last time they had a Western intervention they suffered bloody 20 years of a dictatorship supported by all aligned countries. That is the History. What you said is just an illusion of the western democracy working pretty well for everyone.
Joost wrote:If everything goes in the best way possible, I can even imagine that Iran will morph into a beacon of democracy in a region that is dominated by religious fundamentalism.
It would be my dream to see that happen. But with the iranian PEOPLE revolting against religious instituition and separating the political structure from that in a REAL reform. Let's face it. These rebels are only rebels because it is not THEIR dictator up there.
Joost wrote:It's also interesting to see the role of modern technology in this revolution – how a tragic incident, that of Neda Soltani, ended up serving as a symbol of protest and revolution through modern technology (Twitter et al). In this sense, this may very well become the first truly modern revolution, with decentralized modern communication technology ending up more powerful than the traditional media.
It would be decentralized if it was being held by popular movements which is not. The iranian elite who has access to this kind of tool is taking ahead of this, I don't see any protest coming from this elite reclaiming fundamental rights to education, health or anything.
The western media is ALL supporting the coup, and more than that, promoting it and selling it as a revolution. People seem to be buying that. So it is quite traditional in my view.
Joost wrote:Either way, the revolutionaries now have their martyr, and also have their cause, and widespread support all around the world, and it would be a pity if these events did not lead to a true transformation/change in Iran.
It is a sadic sad story what these people did with the scene of a murdered sheep in order to manufacture a martyr. Their cause is not something honorable. Is just an irresponsible retaliation that is causing even more deaths than what Ahmadinejad ever caused. They are not fighting for the end of misery, nor the end of poverty or islamism. They are not supporting a liberal/reformist candidate. They just want capitalism in the old fashioned way.
Joost wrote:Let's just hope none of this is in vain. Not this death, not any of the other deaths, and neither the desire for true improvement and change.
Let's hope they will awake for a true revolution and change to take place there and other "Democratic" countries all around.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#7 Post by ThePKH » 23 Jun 2009 16:07

Regardless of who might have actually won the elections, the frauds are there for all to see. The fact that Ahmadinejad's opponents did equally badly in their home territories, countryside and major cities raises a great amount of suspicion.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#8 Post by West Virginia Mule » 23 Jun 2009 16:16

To see them holding up "Live Free or Die" signs is kind of...uhm...wow. Yeah. Get down with their bad selves, I say.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#9 Post by Joost » 23 Jun 2009 17:59

Read on Wikipedia:
The Guardian's live blog reported that at approximately 1:30 pm, General Ali Fazli, the newly appointed commander of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran province, has been arrested for refusing to carry Khamenei's order to use force against demonstrators.
At 4:30 pm Tehran time, Iran's ambassador to London was summoned to the Foreign Office and told that Khamenei's remarks were unacceptable.
So, it seems, even generals and ambassadors are ceasing to accept the Ayatollah's orders and authority. Yeah baby. That's the stuff revolutions are made of. It quite delights me to see that they're not just going against Ahmadinejad, but also against the ayatollah.

More recent information here.
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#10 Post by Wicked Child » 23 Jun 2009 19:03

Joost wrote:Read on Wikipedia:
The Guardian's live blog reported that at approximately 1:30 pm, General Ali Fazli, the newly appointed commander of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran province, has been arrested for refusing to carry Khamenei's order to use force against demonstrators.
At 4:30 pm Tehran time, Iran's ambassador to London was summoned to the Foreign Office and told that Khamenei's remarks were unacceptable.
So, it seems, even generals and ambassadors are ceasing to accept the Ayatollah's orders and authority. Yeah baby. That's the stuff revolutions are made of. It quite delights me to see that they're not just going against Ahmadinejad, but also against the ayatollah.

More recent information here.
Nothing new here. Western media interest's propaganda.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#11 Post by Joost » 23 Jun 2009 19:12

Wicked Child wrote:
More recent information here.
Nothing new here. Western media interest's propaganda.
How exactly is this 'western media interest's propaganda'? The people in Iran, at least the youth, and probably many others too, want to be freed from a fundamentalist regime they perceive as oppressive; they use modern technology in order to spread their movement; and then their government shuts down the channels that enable communication through modern technology. Of course the western media do have some interest in this topic, but so do the Iranians -- and this is to me far more important.

Or are you one of those "the CIA is behind all of this"-conspiracists? I'm not sure really why a big part of the Left seems to have become so rotten and reactionary -- for the first time since very long there's a uprising that is a) started by the people, and b) actually likely to further the agenda of the leftists, and they end up simply deriding it as some kind of CIA plot. This revolution is not simply a call for a recounting of the votes, or an action in support of Mousavi; it seems to be much more than that, and that's already witnessed by the fact that many people who actually oppose Mousavi (who also is a reactionary) do support this popular movement. As one of the protesters said: “We didn’t come to battle for the presidency of Mousavi, we have come to defeat the coup and smash the dictators’ set-up”.



And @Borbak: actually I agree about that, 'no fundamentalism at all' is what I really want to see here. ;)
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#12 Post by Orodaran » 23 Jun 2009 19:41

I really hope this is a beginning of what I always call a "muslim renaissance"... not only Iran, but the whole islamic world needs to reach a point where religion won't be used anymore as a tool to justify violence. Today nobody kills anymore for christianism, and no pope would get Inquisition back or call for another crusade; but there are still brainwashed people that blow themselves up because they believe they can reach their heaven, and this is something that has to disappear. I agree with Joost and his hopes about both a fundamentalist regime and the ayatollah rule to go down as soon as they can. 1989 brought the Wall down, maybe 20 years later we're about to witness (and, thanks to the tecnology of today, *witness* really means that) another revolution... which I hope will cost as few deaths as possible!
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#13 Post by Wicked Child » 23 Jun 2009 22:03

Joost wrote:
Wicked Child wrote:
More recent information here.
Nothing new here. Western media interest's propaganda.
How exactly is this 'western media interest's propaganda'? The people in Iran, at least the youth, and probably many others too, want to be freed from a fundamentalist regime they perceive as oppressive


I don't see where are the protests about it. Well, probably you will have further info and I would appreciate to read about it. But all what is being poped up on media is about elections being a fraud. It has nothing to do with fundamentalistic religious freaks.
Joost wrote:they use modern technology in order to spread their movement; and then their government shuts down the channels that enable communication through modern technology. Of course the western media do have some interest in this topic, but so do the Iranians -- and this is to me far more important.
So as for me. But I just don't see any effort of these so called rebels to end tyranny. I don't see it because it is Moussavi opposition who is the greater part of the "revolution".
Joost wrote:Or are you one of those "the CIA is behind all of this"-conspiracists?
I already said on the other thread about this that anyone who said election in the USA was a fraud would be called a conspiracist. And now the same happens if someone says it was not a fraud on Iran. But the fact is that there is NOTHING solid to say it is a fraud. I'm pro-recounting of votes, but what the media is selling and people are buying is just a FALSE statement based on NOTHING but the loser part's charges.
Joost wrote:I'm not sure really why a big part of the Left seems to have become so rotten and reactionary -- for the first time since very long there's a uprising that is a) started by the people,
This is not started by people, but by an elite with international affairs with USA, UK and others.
Joost wrote:and b) actually likely to further the agenda of the leftists, and they end up simply deriding it as some kind of CIA plot. This revolution is not simply a call for a recounting of the votes, or an action in support of Mousavi; it seems to be much more than that, and that's already witnessed by the fact that many people who actually oppose Mousavi (who also is a reactionary) do support this popular movement. As one of the protesters said: “We didn’t come to battle for the presidency of Mousavi, we have come to defeat the coup and smash the dictators’ set-up”.
I'm curious to know, then, what is their proposal for replacing this system that you're talking about? For what I've seen there is no banner up saying WE ARE HERE FOR THE PEOPLE.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#14 Post by Joost » 23 Jun 2009 23:00

Wicked Child wrote:I don't see where are the protests about it. Well, probably you will have further info and I would appreciate to read about it. But all what is being poped up on media is about elections being a fraud. It has nothing to do with fundamentalistic religious freaks.
It has quite a bit. Iran has a population which is for more than 50% under 30, and they are mostly fed up with the fundamentalist regime of the Ayatollah. If you read a bit more into it, you'll notice that all kinds of groups, ranging from conservative religious people to Westernized pro-capitalist people to communists are partaking in this. Even if the CIA is involved in this, it is already getting bigger than the CIA would like.
So as for me. But I just don't see any effort of these so called rebels to end tyranny. I don't see it because it is Moussavi opposition who is the greater part of the "revolution".
They're just a part of it, not the greater part. Let's see what Wikipedia says:

- People's Mujahedin of Iran leader Maryam Rajavi said that the "religious dictatorship and all its suppressive institutions must be done away with so that the Iranian people can hold free UN-supervised elections". [2]
- Reformist politician Ata'ollah Mohajerani blasted the election as "The end of the Islamic Republic".[58]
- The Worker-Communist Party of Iran call for "the overthrow of the Islamic regime". It launched a six-points minimal program[83] and call women to remove their veils.[84] Its satellite TV, New Channel, broadcasts in Iran.[85]
- Significant protests have been held in major cities all throughout the world. Demonstrators in Los Angeles have protested daily calling not only for election reform but complete regime change. Demonstrators have been seen holding signs stating, "No Ahmadi(nejad), no Mousavi, no Islamic Republic!," "No more Islamic Republic."
I already said on the other thread about this that anyone who said election in the USA was a fraud would be called a conspiracist. And now the same happens if someone says it was not a fraud on Iran. But the fact is that there is NOTHING solid to say it is a fraud. I'm pro-recounting of votes, but what the media is selling and people are buying is just a FALSE statement based on NOTHING but the loser part's charges.
Nothing solid to say it is a fraud? Personally I find regional voter turnouts of 140% quite... dubious. Combine that with the incredible speed it took to count all the votes, the fact that there was hardly any difference in the outcome between Tehran and agricultural communities, and just go on.
This is not started by people, but by an elite with international affairs with USA, UK and others.
Yes, when you want to impress, just throw around the word 'elite'. Other than this, your statement is entirely unfounded as of yet – all sources I can find state that the uproar was started by supporters of Mousavi (which, if all circumstantial evidence is equal, should be the preferred hypothesis: it not only is quite likely by itself, but it introduces one entity less than your hypothesis, namely an international elite 'controlling' all of this).
I'm curious to know, then, what is their proposal for replacing this system that you're talking about? For what I've seen there is no banner up saying WE ARE HERE FOR THE PEOPLE.
End of the Islamic Republic, democratic reforms, UN-supervised elections. And then? What 'then' is of course up to the Iranians, but I'm sure the young Iranian population will choose something better than anything Islamo-fundamentalist.
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#15 Post by Joost » 23 Jun 2009 23:03

And, even leaving all of this side, this whole thing is probably at least the most interesting revolution ever: such a big role being played by technology controlled by the people (but not exclusively by them), hacking, disinformation, and non-traditional media. Gosh, it's almost cyberpunk.
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

::.: Homepage .::. last.fm .::. Facebook .::. Flickr :.::

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#16 Post by Joost » 23 Jun 2009 23:11

Come think of it, and continuing the cyberpunk theme: Ahmadinejad & co. of course know how to use Twitter too, and it's easy to confuse and spread disinformation by calling this a CIA conspiracy, and letting the meme spread. It's a good tactic of keeping out a crew that would be rather vocal against you otherwise (the leftists).
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

::.: Homepage .::. last.fm .::. Facebook .::. Flickr :.::

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#17 Post by Beren Ercharmion » 23 Jun 2009 23:16

just read an interesting article on the online edition of german newsmag "Der Spiegel".

They speak of "anonymous sources from Iran's interior ministry claiming Mussawi won with 57,2 % and Ahmadinedschad got only 28%. might be a false info, too, but some of the other stuff they presened in the article where quite funny as well, like more votes than registred voters and some electoral districts and such.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#18 Post by Joost » 23 Jun 2009 23:34

Not sure if this (a message I read on Anonymous Iran) is going to be carried out, but it would be damn awesome if it were:
From this Tuesday, at 9 every morning we will all go to the bazaar in our towns all over the country. If they prevent us, the bazaar will close. If they do not, there will be such congestion that the business will get interrupted and the bazaar will close. If they disconnect the telephone lines, again all activities will get interrupted and the bazaar will close. As much as possible, we will shut down the whole town and go to the bazaar to shut it down.
Take everyone with you. Bring the children, too –without any slogans-without green signs-without sit-ins; pretending to go shopping but not buying anything. We will only think of shutting down the bazaar, but do not leave any traces, not even a victory sign by our hands. NOT AT ALL.
We will only think of victory. Bring the children, all the towns of Iran, without slogans, without slogans, without slogans, quietly, quietly, quietly, without greens, without sit-ins, without fighting. If anyone starts quarrels or shouts, we will not join because we pretend to be going shopping. There is no need to fear, and everyone will come. No fights, no bloodshed, no slogans, no sit-ins. If they prevent us, we simply return because we mean to shut down the bazaar, not to assemble. If they shoot tear gas, the bazaar will close. We will act smartly and will not engage in any sort of fights although if any fighting happens the bazaar will close due to insecurity. But we will not engage in any fights, and calmly and solely think of victory. With the congestion the bazaar will shut down, or no one will be there. Under any circumstances we will win. Dear Mr. Mousavi: We do not need your martyrdom and self-sacrifice; we need your leadership until we reach our goals. Until 9am Tuesday, the 3rd day of the martyrdom of June 20th martyrs, we will have enough time to inform everyone. Inform friends by any means: through websites, foreign media…. From Tuesday towards bazaar. Send this message to friends and the addresses below so that it gets widespread all over our dear Iran. This strategy is effective and there is no need to fear, and will bring millions of Iranians into the scene without any bloodshed. Rest assured this strategy is so effective that the enemy will soon start denying and making rumors, and will start struggling. Do not believe them because this program will continue. Do not listen to rumors and inform everyone by whatever means possible.
Wishing for success
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#19 Post by Wicked Child » 24 Jun 2009 00:39

Joost wrote:
Wicked Child wrote:So as for me. But I just don't see any effort of these so called rebels to end tyranny. I don't see it because it is Moussavi opposition who is the greater part of the "revolution".
They're just a part of it, not the greater part. Let's see what Wikipedia says:

- People's Mujahedin of Iran leader Maryam Rajavi said that the "religious dictatorship and all its suppressive institutions must be done away with so that the Iranian people can hold free UN-supervised elections". [2]
- Reformist politician Ata'ollah Mohajerani blasted the election as "The end of the Islamic Republic".[58]
- The Worker-Communist Party of Iran call for "the overthrow of the Islamic regime". It launched a six-points minimal program[83] and call women to remove their veils.[84] Its satellite TV, New Channel, broadcasts in Iran.[85]
- Significant protests have been held in major cities all throughout the world. Demonstrators in Los Angeles have protested daily calling not only for election reform but complete regime change. Demonstrators have been seen holding signs stating, "No Ahmadi(nejad), no Mousavi, no Islamic Republic!," "No more Islamic Republic."
That's one interesting thing that NO ONE is aware of. Because western perfect world won't say it.
Joost wrote:
Wicked Child wrote:I already said on the other thread about this that anyone who said election in the USA was a fraud would be called a conspiracist. And now the same happens if someone says it was not a fraud on Iran. But the fact is that there is NOTHING solid to say it is a fraud. I'm pro-recounting of votes, but what the media is selling and people are buying is just a FALSE statement based on NOTHING but the loser part's charges.
Nothing solid to say it is a fraud? Personally I find regional voter turnouts of 140% quite... dubious. Combine that with the incredible speed it took to count all the votes, the fact that there was hardly any difference in the outcome between Tehran and agricultural communities, and just go on.
Again, the point is why is Iranian election interesting for western media? I'm 100% sure that if you look around the world you'll find irregularities just as well on so called democratic countries and yet no one says it is a fraud. This speech has a load of biased information behind it.

Now, you may be discussing here real interests of iranian people - and I believe you are - but no one on the news is talking about stuff you quoted from wikipedia. The main-theme is the fraud, that was not even proved true. I just think that if you are defending a legitimate revolution, as a revolutionary that you are, you shouldn't adopt this western media's speech - this one that is truly reactionary.
Joost wrote:
Wicked Child wrote:This is not started by people, but by an elite with international affairs with USA, UK and others.
Yes, when you want to impress, just throw around the word 'elite'. Other than this, your statement is entirely unfounded as of yet – all sources I can find state that the uproar was started by supporters of Mousavi (which, if all circumstantial evidence is equal, should be the preferred hypothesis: it not only is quite likely by itself, but it introduces one entity less than your hypothesis, namely an international elite 'controlling' all of this).
From Counterpunch.org: “Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.

The only demographic groups in which our survey found Moussavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.”


So, it is not just a way to impress to call "highest-income Iranians" as an elite. And this elite preferred Moussavi, which is US/UK candidate for Iran. For the reasons we are all tired of knowing.

It was not a problem if it was just an elite trying to make revolution. Every book on the theme may be affirmative on saying that every revolution is led - somehow - by a young elite, who have access to information. But on Iran, this elite is particularly Ahmadinejad's opposition. And they are the great source of western medias's information. THAT is dubious.
Joost wrote:
Wicked Child wrote:I'm curious to know, then, what is their proposal for replacing this system that you're talking about? For what I've seen there is no banner up saying WE ARE HERE FOR THE PEOPLE.
End of the Islamic Republic, democratic reforms, UN-supervised elections. And then? What 'then' is of course up to the Iranians, but I'm sure the young Iranian population will choose something better than anything Islamo-fundamentalist.
If this retaliation succeeds like they want, it will not be up to Iranians. You even claimed yourself for something more 'western'. I don't really get it.
The minute Ahmadinejad leaves - if this will ever happen - there will be serious international controlling on Iran's affairs and THEN I would want to see a revolution.
Joost wrote:and it's easy to confuse and spread disinformation by calling this a CIA conspiracy, and letting the meme spread. It's a good tactic of keeping out a crew that would be rather vocal against you otherwise (the leftists).
Now you are being a little bit conspiracist, aren't you? Not saying I don't agree with you, but you can see than anything that is not being considered on the news can turn out as a conspiracy theory.

And yes, it may gather USA radical oppositors on Ahmadinejad's side because of the CIA. BUT, as a leftist that I am, I'm thinking about a prelude for a bloody dictatorship.
Joost wrote:And, even leaving all of this side, this whole thing is probably at least the most interesting revolution ever: such a big role being played by technology controlled by the people (but not exclusively by them), hacking, disinformation, and non-traditional media. Gosh, it's almost cyberpunk.
Some of this phenomenon is already getting strong on my homeland. We are trying, through the internet, make a voice against our corrupt corporative media. Some of the movements (arranged by the internet) are engaged in overthrowing the head of our country's legislative power because of his corruption, by pacific protests. Other ones, camped in front of the building of the biggest conservative newspaper, to protest against a column that stated that our 20-year-dictatorship wasn't that harsh. And it's really interesting to see how's that going on without the traditional rulers of the power not being able to control it.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#20 Post by Mahoora » 24 Jun 2009 17:24

Technically I'm the closetst person here to Iran so i'm gonna tell things from my prespective: whatever happens now in Iran is an Irani buisness and no outer gouvernement has the right to interfere. I wonder if Mousavi won the election and Ahmadinajad supporters started this action, the west would start this mess. I'm not saying that i'm pro religious fundamentalism or there was no suspisions about the results of the elections but it's clear that the term "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" is being well used now by western gouvernements. The last thing i want to see now is another Iraq and i'm fed up with the west trying to impose the democrasy his way not letting the democracy flurish by it self which is the case now in Iran. maybe you don't know that but Iran has the best democrasy in the region, no one would dare to do such things in near by countries. also their technological advancement is amazaing compared to neighbour countries. so if there's ever gonna be a revelotion in Iran, it should be led by its own people
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#21 Post by Joost » 24 Jun 2009 18:03

Mahoora wrote:Technically I'm the closetst person here to Iran so i'm gonna tell things from my prespective: whatever happens now in Iran is an Irani buisness and no outer gouvernement has the right to interfere.
With 'Irani business' you mean the Iranian government? The Irani people? What about the many Iranian exiles who fled their country and now try to involve themselves in this?

And, well, what about the Hezbollah/Hamas members who came to Iran from Lebanon/Palestine to support the Basij? Among the Basij guards there are rumoured to be many who do not even speak Farsi, just Arabic, so well: why would Ahmadinejad have the right to recruit help from foreign countries, and would his opponents not have the same right?
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#22 Post by Wicked Child » 24 Jun 2009 21:21

Joost wrote:
Mahoora wrote:Technically I'm the closetst person here to Iran so i'm gonna tell things from my prespective: whatever happens now in Iran is an Irani buisness and no outer gouvernement has the right to interfere.
With 'Irani business' you mean the Iranian government? The Irani people? What about the many Iranian exiles who fled their country and now try to involve themselves in this?

And, well, what about the Hezbollah/Hamas members who came to Iran from Lebanon/Palestine to support the Basij? Among the Basij guards there are rumoured to be many who do not even speak Farsi, just Arabic, so well: why would Ahmadinejad have the right to recruit help from foreign countries, and would his opponents not have the same right?
From what I understood from Mahoora's statement, is that there shouldn't be outer intervention motivated by outer interests. That is something Iran is not doing.
The guards may be recruited from Hamas, but they play no lead role in all this events. What all the West is doing is to reverberate Mousavi's complains about losing the election, hoping that it will give a push for overthrowing Ahmadinejad and replace him with someone more aligned with western interests. I keep my theory that, the minute Ahmadinejad leaves his sit, there will be an invasion and the well intentioned revolutionaries are all going to be slaughtered.

edit: interesting reading http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF23Ak02.html
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#23 Post by Led Guardian » 24 Jun 2009 22:16

Hmmm, everyone seems to be ignoring (including the media) that Ahmaddinejad doesn't have all the power. A vast portion of political power (in fact,quite a majority I do believe) resides in Ayatollah Khamenei, and he's not going to give it up so easily. I doubt Moussavi would have been allowed to run if he had been a serious threat to the current fundamentalist Islamic regime.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#24 Post by Joost » 24 Jun 2009 22:39

Led Guardian wrote:Hmmm, everyone seems to be ignoring (including the media) that Ahmaddinejad doesn't have all the power.
You have a different conception of 'everyone' than I, and many others. Forget the mainstream media, use the Internet. Maybe they haven't actually picked up how much of this is actually about bringing down the Islamic Republic – chants of down with the Islamic Republic have been heard throughout the streets of Tehran.
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#25 Post by Led Guardian » 24 Jun 2009 22:46

Well, "everyone" is hyperbolic, but at least in America, most people I would say equate leadership and the Islamic Republic in Iran with Ahmadinejad, which of course is not the case. Ask people about Khamenei in the US, and you'll probably just get quizzical looks from most of them.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#26 Post by Wicked Child » 25 Jun 2009 13:09

Led Guardian wrote:Well, "everyone" is hyperbolic, but at least in America, most people I would say equate leadership and the Islamic Republic in Iran with Ahmadinejad, which of course is not the case. Ask people about Khamenei in the US, and you'll probably just get quizzical looks from most of them.
You're totally right. I have said it also on a previous post: That their enemy (Ahmadinejad) was not the ruler of the country, therefore his overthrowing wouldn't mean the end of the current islamic system, established since the islamic revolution - therefore, his opponents were not claiming for a true revolution.

But what Joost said is also right. Mainstream media is focused on illegitimate the elections, hoping that the most western candidate, Mousavi, could replace Ahmadinejad. There is an underground turmoil that is probably taking advantage from this moment of protests to take to the streets and ask for the end of islamic system, although, it is not, in my view, the biggest part of the whole movement.
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#27 Post by Joost » 25 Jun 2009 18:47

Today I checked CNN, for the first time, for news on the revolution. They had nothing to say. Yes, some words of Ahmadinejad, Khamenei and the Irani ambassador in Mexico, and an analysis of Obama's reaction to the events. But nothing about what's actually going on there. It's as if they are missing the entire point.

Perhaps really, the 'television era' of war reporting (which probably reached its height with the first Gulf War, which was highly 'centralized' on just about all levels, something going on between the big guys and being reported by the big media guys) is near to its end, and we're at the dawn of the 'Internet era' of reporting (with highly decentralized information from the normal guys, which also actively take part in the movement).

Even if it would turn out that the CIA were, in fact, partly 'behind' this, this shows a lot more than just that. This revolution can be a highly inspiring event for the future, showing people that, in principle, a lot can be achieved through the use of technology which is available to them too, and that, in principle, effective censorship on the Internet is close to impossible (with anonymized proxies like Tor etc.).
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#28 Post by Skyclad » 25 Jun 2009 18:50

I hope CNN and every news agency in the U.S. stays right out of this like Obama is trying. This is the first time in a long time I've seen people in the middle east blaming Europe (England) for something and not the U.S. :lol:
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Re: Revolution in Iran

#29 Post by Joost » 25 Jun 2009 19:04

read on a Dutch news site: 180 out of 290 members of parliament stay away during the inauguration/victory celebration of Ahmadinejad's new term
You charge each other for the time and breath it takes to say 'good morning',
But the truth is slowly dawning -- things are getting out of hand,
We all pursue our shattered dreams along the roads to our own ruin --
Watch our empires sink and wash away like castles made of sand.
And so cast off the lies that are your lives and find the truth within.
-- Martin Walkyier

Also, Balrogs have wings.

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Re: Revolution in Iran

#30 Post by Wicked Child » 25 Jun 2009 19:51

Joost wrote:read on a Dutch news site: 180 out of 290 members of parliament stay away during the inauguration/victory celebration of Ahmadinejad's new term
Still we have to know if it is in fact a boycott or just regular absence.
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