EU on the brink of destruction?

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End Of An Era · #1 Post by **End Of An Era** » 14 May 2010 16:06

Strangely enough i noticed there's been almost no talk about all the euro-crisis..

at your service!

Andreas · #2 Post by **Andreas** » 14 May 2010 17:32

All you Americans want Europe to destroy itself![/WVM mode]

ThePKH · #3 Post by **ThePKH** » 14 May 2010 18:29

Yeah, I too am sick of the anti-European sentiment that ALL the Americans in the forum are spreading!

The Rider Of Rohan · #4 Post by **The Rider Of Rohan** » 14 May 2010 18:39

It's all the fault of Obama's health-care plans.

End Of An Era · #5 Post by **End Of An Era** » 14 May 2010 18:41

ehm, have we all become what we disliked in WVM?

The Rider Of Rohan · #6 Post by **The Rider Of Rohan** » 14 May 2010 18:53

It was either that, or blaming Israel.

last.fm · #7 Post by **Joost** » 14 May 2010 19:24

Or the fact that Balrogs have wings.

The Rider Of Rohan · #8 Post by **The Rider Of Rohan** » 14 May 2010 19:30

No they don't.

And you just made me loose the game.

Metal Fan · #9 Post by **Metal Fan** » 14 May 2010 19:45

I still don't understand the 'game'

End Of An Era · #10 Post by **End Of An Era** » 14 May 2010 20:05

don't you know that rapper, "the game"? it has become some sort of meme here

Metal Fan · #11 Post by **Metal Fan** » 14 May 2010 20:13

Oh, doesn't really explain much.

Andreas · #12 Post by **Andreas** » 14 May 2010 21:06

Hallowed be the game!

The Rider Of Rohan wrote:No they don't.

Shut up!

Insanity · #13 Post by **Insanity** » 14 May 2010 21:20

Andreas wrote:
The Rider Of Rohan wrote:No they don't.
Shut up!

You got a good argument there.

Desert_Storm · #14 Post by **Desert_Storm** » 15 May 2010 02:34

metalfan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_%28mind_game%29

Andreas · #15 Post by **Andreas** » 15 May 2010 02:37

Insanity wrote:
Andreas wrote:
The Rider Of Rohan wrote:No they don't.
Shut up!

You got a good argument there.

Non-believer?

Cerbere · #16 Post by **Cerbere** » 15 May 2010 04:13

I never really understood why there is an ongoing argument about whether or not balrogs have wings.

West Virginia Mule · #17 Post by **West Virginia Mule** » 15 May 2010 07:23

Civil War in Europe. Only...since everyone's afraid to fight, they called it off and are just making frowny faces at each other.

Don't worry. Obama will bail you out and also buy everyone new stoves.

Metal Fan · #18 Post by **Metal Fan** » 15 May 2010 08:01

Desert_Storm wrote:metalfan: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_%28mind_game%29

WELL I LOST THE GAME...

End Of An Era · #19 Post by **End Of An Era** » 15 May 2010 09:23

silly me thinking a thread in the coffee shop would not be hijacked

Daijin · #20 Post by **Daijin** » 15 May 2010 09:29

We could try to put it back on track: The biggest newspaper in Europe, the German "Bild", had the title: "The're stealing our money!". So, what do you think about that (not the title but the aspect of giving money to save the economy of poorer countries in Europe)?

End Of An Era · #21 Post by **End Of An Era** » 15 May 2010 09:55

I like the fact the EU is helping weaker countries, but i totally dislike there's a high chance they won't be able to pay back! And of course that they must cut back before getting any money. i fear this is the tip of the iceberg and the euro need bigger and bigger cash flows just to keep in the game.

Insanity · #22 Post by **Insanity** » 15 May 2010 10:03

Andreas wrote:
Insanity wrote:
Andreas wrote: Shut up!
You got a good argument there.
Non-believer?

Erm, no. I was referring to the "Shut up!"

No‘am · #23 Post by **No‘am** » 15 May 2010 10:15

I just hope the Euro continues to plummet till late August so that my holiday will be cheaper.
From what I get about the "crisis", is that, first of all, it changes every couple of days - the stock market indices go drastically down, then after a few days they go back up to where they were, or even higher. Doesn't sound like much of a crisis. And from what I understood, the root of this was the problems in Greece, the need to cut back on (what sounded like absurd) social benefits that cost the state too much money, and the Greek people not wanting to lose those privileges, hence the rioting. And all of the financial aid from other countries is to continue supporting these social benefits in order to subside these riots.
And I don't get what's the problem with Spain and Portugal that popped up all of a sudden. Do they also have a huge national debt due to social benefits?

Daijin · #24 Post by **Daijin** » 15 May 2010 10:18

End Of An Era wrote:I like the fact the EU is helping weaker countries, but i totally dislike there's a high chance they won't be able to pay back! And of course that they must cut back before getting any money. i fear this is the tip of the iceberg and the euro need bigger and bigger cash flows just to keep in the game.

Yeah, I think, helping weaker countries is what the European Union should, amongst other aspects of course, be about (now, that's a strange and somehow stupid sentence...

). Problems start when countries are driven into debts by irresponsible policy, like 14 or 15 monthly wages or an absurdly low retiring age, and when all of this collapses the richer countries are expected to pay for presents that other government gave to their population.

On a sidenote (with regard to another topic): Israel is considering the purchase of large sums of Euros in order to stabilise the currency.

No‘am · #25 Post by **No‘am** » 15 May 2010 10:20

Daijin wrote:On a sidenote (with regard to another topic): Israel is considering the purchase of large sums of Euros in order to stabilise the currency.

It was done with the US dollar, and it sort of worked, I think.

Gandalf de Grijze · #26 Post by **Gandalf de Grijze** » 15 May 2010 11:52

I think the main problem lies in two things, firstly the irresponsible financial policy of greece as a country. Knowingly adjusting figures to fit the image of a good balance while the debt just gets bigger and bigger. Not doing anything to change the economical situation without having to result to the heavy cut backs they are forced to do now.
Secondly I think the people at stock exchanges worldwide should think about their actions a bit more, all the financial problems are in part caused by the almost spastic panic that erupts at only the slightes rumor of losing money. These panicked reactions blow a financial bad situation up to financial disasters.

The Rider Of Rohan · #27 Post by **The Rider Of Rohan** » 15 May 2010 12:05

I don't think it's such a bad thing. The euro didn't plummet into a free-fall-scenario, stock-markets didn't collapse, and no countries went bankrupt. So the only thing that happened is that it devaluated when compared to the dollar. That's a good thing. The euro has been over-valued for a long time anyway.

The lower euro means a couple of things:

- Europe is more interesting for tourists than it was some time ago (as Noam pointed out)
- European goods are cheaper for oversea buyers, which means that our export will increase
- Purchases overseas will be more expensive, which means imports will decrease at the expense of domestic purchases, which will also increase.

So all in all, we should be quite pleased with this.

The problems in the medditerenean countries arose because their import was higher than their export, which causes huge debts when mixed with poor monotarian policy. Greece is now under strict supervision from the IMF which gives them a chance to clean up their act. If they can proft from the lower euro as described above and raise their export, they'll be out of debt in a decade or two and the value of the euro can increase again.

In many ways there's nothing special going on, just business cycles dictated by simple economics. Stuff that has been going on for centuries, only now on a larger scale.

Edain · #28 Post by **Edain** » 15 May 2010 12:06

I'm all for helping the weaker countries, but the problem with pumping billions into Greece is the following: Many experts already said, it's not possible to help Greece anymore - in the next few years they'll have to pay a fifth (!) of their whole tax revenue only to pay the interest for their credits. It's hard to believe that any country would be able to cope with this: Where does the EUs cheap money they're pumping in ultimately end: To pay the astronomical 9-10 % interest of the big finance companies. It must be allowed to ask whether a national bankruptcy wouldn't be the better decision in that case ...

The funny thing is: The states are even worse overindebted than Europe. The dollar is just still alive because it IS oil (remember the Iraq had plans to trade his oil in Euros 8 years ago?). The whole system sucks. Billions and trillions are sucked out of the real econonmy (give a million to some poor fellas and they'll buy and buy and buy ... give a million to one of the big banks and they won't create any value with it, just moving numbers on the financial markets) and therefore there isn't any more economical growth to pay for the exponentially growing interest debts.

Btw: Greece's problems don't come only from their social system but also from their ridiculous military expentitures. C'mon, 6 % of the BNP? In the modern world?

Belgarion · #29 Post by **Belgarion** » 15 May 2010 12:21

/World's most superficial man mode on

Apart from the problems the EU is having, I think End Of An Era wanted to say "EU on the eve of destruction?".

/World's most superficial man mode off

The Rider Of Rohan · #30 Post by **The Rider Of Rohan** » 15 May 2010 12:31

Daijin wrote:We could try to put it back on track: The biggest newspaper in Europe, the German "Bild", had the title: "The're stealing our money!". So, what do you think about that (not the title but the aspect of giving money to save the economy of poorer countries in Europe)?

This reeks of a double standard on behalf of Der Bild. Don't forget that Germany (and France with them) enjoyed a more favourable exchange-rate in relation to their national debt than other European countries during the second half of the nineties. In doing so they were able to write off parts of their debt, which effectively means that they were able to raise their exports easier than, or at the expense of, other countries. Or, to put it in other words, that the rest of Europe was paying for those two countries.

It was to be expected that the tables would turn sooner or later. Once again it's basic Keynsias economics, and nothing to cry crocodile tears about.

Daijin · #31 Post by **Daijin** » 15 May 2010 12:44

The Rider Of Rohan wrote: This reeks of a double standard on behalf of Der Bild.

It's the "Bild", you know?

Mackasfour · #32 Post by **Mackasfour** » 15 May 2010 13:05

End Of An Era wrote:silly me thinking a thread in the tea shop would not be hijacked

Silly you indeed

corrupted old gnom · #33 Post by **corrupted old gnom** » 15 May 2010 13:59

Edain wrote: It must be allowed to ask whether a national bankruptcy wouldn't be the better decision in that case ...

with the limited information i have, i'd say national bankruptcy would have been the way to go; an expert said that this happened quite some times before...but just "nobody" noticed
can't say if this is true, it's just what i read

End Of An Era · #34 Post by **End Of An Era** » 16 May 2010 12:03

Belgarion wrote:/World's most superficial man mode on

Apart from the problems the EU is having, I think End Of An Era wanted to say "EU on the eve of destruction?".

/World's most superficial man mode off

no i didn't! i ment 'brink' actually

The Rider Of Rohan · #35 Post by **The Rider Of Rohan** » 16 May 2010 15:03

corrupted old gnom wrote:
Edain wrote: It must be allowed to ask whether a national bankruptcy wouldn't be the better decision in that case ...
with the limited information i have, i'd say national bankruptcy would have been the way to go; an expert said that this happened quite some times before...but just "nobody" noticed
can't say if this is true, it's just what i read

I'm not an economic, but I don't think a bankruptcy would have helped. Greece got into problems because they spent more money than they earned, which means that they are in debt with other countries. A bankruptcy would surely settle the debt, but cause a disturbance on the balancing-book of the countries that are creditors. When those countries are denied payment it amounts to a loss of expected income, and such a thing could just as well cause a domino-effect throughout Europe.

There's also the issue of not solving the problem at the core. When Greece files bankruptcy without either increasing their income or decreasing their expenses, they would wind up in the same position within a matter of years. Only that time it would be even harder to get out of it due to a lower trust on behalf of possible creditors.

End Of An Era · #36 Post by **End Of An Era** » 16 May 2010 15:11

indeed. And let's not forget, greece is not the only one in this situation! i've heard say spain, portugal, ireland and scotland have been going down the same path aswel..

corrupted old gnom · #37 Post by **corrupted old gnom** » 19 May 2010 19:44

The Rider Of Rohan wrote:There's also the issue of not solving the problem at the core. When Greece files bankruptcy without either increasing their income or decreasing their expenses, they would wind up in the same position within a matter of years. Only that time it would be even harder to get out of it due to a lower trust on behalf of possible creditors.

that's without a doubt true; either way they do have to get a balanced budget

The Rider Of Rohan wrote:I'm not an economic, but I don't think a bankruptcy would have helped. Greece got into problems because they spent more money than they earned, which means that they are in debt with other countries. A bankruptcy would surely settle the debt, but cause a disturbance on the balancing-book of the countries that are creditors. When those countries are denied payment it amounts to a loss of expected income, and such a thing could just as well cause a domino-effect throughout Europe.

there are two main differences: now, they still have a debt and they do have to pay huge amounts of interests
...and that's not puttin greece in a comfy position
I AM an economist and should know about this stuff - but i'm not going to start thinking about the impact of the money transfer
(let's go watch some seinfeld instead

)

No‘am · #38 Post by **No‘am** » 20 May 2010 12:18

How can a country declare bankruptcy exactly? It's not like its territory gets divided between the countries that it owes debt to.

End Of An Era · #39 Post by **End Of An Era** » 20 May 2010 21:32

No‘am wrote:How can a country declare bankruptcy exactly? It's not like its territory gets divided between the countries that it owes debt to.

which part of greece has the best looking girls i wonder....

Belgarion · #40 Post by **Belgarion** » 20 May 2010 23:18

End Of An Era wrote:
No‘am wrote:How can a country declare bankruptcy exactly? It's not like its territory gets divided between the countries that it owes debt to.
which part of greece has the best looking girls i wonder....

Thessaloniki, I tell ya.

End Of An Era · #41 Post by **End Of An Era** » 20 May 2010 23:55

Belgarion wrote:
End Of An Era wrote:
No‘am wrote:How can a country declare bankruptcy exactly? It's not like its territory gets divided between the countries that it owes debt to.
which part of greece has the best looking girls i wonder....
Thessaloniki, I tell ya.

the dutch proclaim Thessaloniki as our newest colony!!

Maglor's Fate · #42 Post by **Maglor's Fate** » 21 May 2010 14:26

End Of An Era · #43 Post by **End Of An Era** » 22 May 2010 21:34

Hey there, fellow Dutchie!

Gandalf de Grijze · #44 Post by **Gandalf de Grijze** » 22 May 2010 21:39

don't forget to wear orange !

spamel · #45 Post by **spamel** » 22 May 2010 22:45

End Of An Era wrote:the dutch proclaim Thessaloniki as our newest colony!!

They do great gyros there, and they have free porn channels. Well, they did when I went on a "holiday" there in 1999 before a short busman's into Kosovo!

corrupted old gnom · #46 Post by **corrupted old gnom** » 23 May 2010 14:00

Gandalf de Grijze wrote:don't forget to wear orange !

*sings* orange trägt nur die müllabfuhr - orange trägt nur die müllabfuhr

Desert_Storm · #47 Post by **Desert_Storm** » 23 May 2010 14:23

What a nice song

*joins in*

spamel · #48 Post by **spamel** » 23 May 2010 18:20

I didn't know The Game until joining here. And God damn I was doing well until a few minutes ago! I LOST THE FOOKING GAME!

Metal Fan · #49 Post by **Metal Fan** » 23 May 2010 18:42

damn you!

End Of An Era · #50 Post by **End Of An Era** » 23 May 2010 19:33

corrupted old gnom wrote:
Gandalf de Grijze wrote:don't forget to wear orange !
*sings* orange trägt nur die müllabfuhr - orange trägt nur die müllabfuhr

yeah, we will take out the trash

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